Opinions and decisions
As mentioned in last week’s blog, I have exhausted the big topics I intended to cover over the first 31 weeks. This blog is now transitioning to covering smaller topics and thoughts for the remaining 21 weeks.
In recent years, as I observe myself and others, I have reached the conclusion that opinions tend to harden quickly and become entrenched too soon. Conversely decisions we make are often subject to second-guessing and frequent reassessment. I think we could be more effective at work and in life if we could adjust this and hold our opinions loosely and our decisions a little more firmly.
So much of what we do naturally is programmed into us as a survival mechanism. Opinions, judgements and assumptions are there to help us navigate the world and ultimately protect us. If we know someone is unreliable then we avoid transacting with or trusting that individual. If we see two events happening near each other then we naturally assume some level of correlation or causation between them. Technology has overwhelmed us with information to the point that we are asked to react to data more quickly and frequently than ever before. The need for assumptions and quick opinions has increased to avoid mental paralysis. The problem is when these opinions harden into “facts” without any additional evidence to support them. At this point we lose the flexibility to think effectively without being anchored by unconscious bias and the experience-driven filters we see the world through.
On the other hand, when we make decisions, particularly personal decisions, we frequently second-guess ourselves and use any new information to validate or challenge the decision we just made. If the decision was made quickly and relevant new information emerges that clearly impacts on our thinking, then we should give it full consideration. Where this becomes unhelpful is when we make a well-reasoned decision based on all available information and then become too fearful to fully commit to it in case we are making an error. The result in extreme cases is a form of self-sabotage where our inability to commit results in us not reaping the benefits of a good decision. At the minimum we are weakening our own and other’s confidence in a particular decision. In the worst case we could be undermining confidence in our abilities to make good decisions at all.
To illustrate this, lets use a negotiation as an example. In the planning phase we make assumptions and decisions. The assumptions are on areas that we don’t know, but need to deduce, in other words the other side’s position and break points. The decisions should be fixed around the areas we do know, our position, our break points and our anticipated reactions and counters to the first round of proposals. If we aren’t flexible in our thinking regarding their break points, we are likely to misjudge them and either scupper the deal or give away value unnecessarily. Similarly, if we second-guess our decisions about our own positions, then we will lack the confidence and certainty necessary to push for the best outcome.
I’m not saying that opinions and assumptions aren’t helpful, as they are essential. I am saying that we should recognize them for what they are and use them only for guidance where it suits and discard them when it doesn’t suit. I am also not saying that every decision we make will be right, but if you have given the decision appropriate thought, have reviewed it with others and understand the gaps in information when the decision was made, there should be a higher degree of confidence in it.
Next week I have some thoughts on learning from managers.